A report from Globalysis Ltd., a casino strategy consultancy, was published this week, making some impressive predictions about the growth of Macau’s gaming industry. In one of my many other lives, I do work for one of these think tanks, so I know that having a bunch of educated men in suits sitting around a table saying something will happen, doesn’t necessarily make it so. All the same, wagering on growth in this business seems like a sure bet to me.
Not that I know that much about sure bets, the 20 or so patacas or so I lost at the Lisboa’s gaming tables doesn’t exactly qualify me as a high roller — but the odds still look good to me. Globalysis’ report says that Macau will have 28.8% growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) over its 2007 performance, and calendar year 2008 will reach GGR of US$13.5 billion.
Macau has already bypassed the Las Vegas strip in terms of gaming revenue, but the report predicts that for the first time, Macau will also bypass the entire metro area of Las Vegas. The report echoes my own earlier sentiments, that the airline and tourist industries will also have to kick into high gear, and we’re already seeing this happen. And of course, retail continues to grow phenomenally, as high-end shops gear up to give big winners more opportunities to leave their money in the country before their two-week vacations end. If you enjoy gambling, spend some time at the blackjack tables — but if you enjoy winning, put your money into Macau’s tourist, retail, and construction industries.
But you may want to consider fewer patacas and more Yuan, since Macau currency follows the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the depressingly weak US dollar. I’m back in Bangkok now, and suffering the effects of 2 currency exchanges and reeling over how many American dollars my credit card company tells me I now owe. And here, my greenback buying power just doesn’t buy me nearly enough bottles of Singha beer to cope with my distress.
The Yuan is strong, and reportedly mainland banks are providing significantly higher interest rates than banks in Hong Kong and Macau, and some banks are even providing a service that allows you to open a Yuan account without having to cross the border. Of course, Yuan are not fully convertible and the mainland government controls the money flow, but many savers and investors are starting to put limited amounts of money into Yuan accounts to counter the effects of the near-zero interest rates offered in Hong Kong and Macau banks.
* For series, references are published in the last installment of the series.
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